August 22, 2026
Base Rate Flare
A 4-minute estimation challenge. Solve first, then compare your answer against the model bench.
Daily challenge switches at midnight in Europe/Amsterdam.
Daily challenge · Estimation · 4 min
Base Rate Flare
A condition affects 1% of people. A test catches 90% of true cases, but also gives a false positive for 10% of people without the condition.
If someone tests positive, what is the closest chance they truly have the condition?
Solve without AI first. The model comparison appears only after you lock in.
Open today's permalinkWhy this can spread
One clean result is easier to share than a whole product pitch.
Each daily challenge has a stable URL and generated social preview, so search engines can index it and people can send the exact same puzzle to friends.
Early access
Get tomorrow's challenge drop.
Join the list for new challenge drops, model baselines, and the Human Edge profile as it opens up.